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Lake Powell, the lake created by Glen Canyon Dam, at two points in time about four years apart. Notice that North America has separated from Africa and there is a spreading center in the Central Atlantic Ocean. Summer heat waves will become hotter and longer, while winter cold snaps will occur less often. Because high mountains to the west and north act as a barrier to cold Arctic air masses, most areas of Utah rarely experience temperatures below freezing or prolonged periods of extreme cold. Photo source:National Park Service (public domain). As a result of displacement due to continental rifting and seafloor spreading, sea level throughout the Cretaceous was much higher than it is today. North America's position near the equator kept its climate relatively warm. Indeed, much of this region has low annual rainfall and seasonally high temperatures that contribute to its characteristic desert climate. Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397). Earth 150 million years ago, near the end of the Jurassic Period. 2. (2011)PLoS ONE3(7): e2791(Creative Commons Attribution license, image reorganized and resized). Left photoandright photoby NPS/Michael Quinn (Grand Canyon National Park via flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, images cropped and resized). Both fires began as prescribed burns, or fires that were set deliberately with the intention of preventing the formation of future wildfires. Mesohippusmeasured up to 70 centimeters (2 feet) at shoulder height. Weather conditions, particularly hot, dry weather and wind that spreads flames, contribute significantly to the ignition and growth of wildfires. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. Arizona's highest elevations receive an average of 65 to 76 centimeters (25 to 30 inches), with lower areas in the states southwestern portion averaging less than 8 centimeters (3 inches). Left:Trilobites identified asDolichometoppus productusandAlokistocare althea. The large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere did not extend into the Southwest, even at their maximum area. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. Arizona's climate is influenced by three main topographical areas: the high Colorado Plateau (about 15202130 meters or 50007000 feet in elevation), the rugged mountains to the west (27403660 meters or 900012000 feet high), and the low southwestern mountains with desert valleys (as low as 30 meters or 100 feet above sea level). Photo by Lane Pearman (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). There were spots that received large amounts of rain, but overall Nora was a bust. July 1August 22, 2021 precipitation shown as a percent of the average July 1August 22, based on 19792020. The climate was drier than that of the Carboniferous, and mudflats with salt and gypsum formed across the Southwestern states. Shiprock, a volcanic monadnock in San Juan County, New Mexico, rises roughly 483 meters (1583 feet) above the desert plain. Although there has been a fair amount of research into the monsoon, there are still far more questions than answers about how it works, and if the seasonal amount of rain, potential start date, or other characteristics can be predicted. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image resized). Photo by Richard Stephen Haynes (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image resized). Since 800,000 years ago, an equilibrium has been reached between warming and cooling, with the ice caps growing and retreating primarily due to the influence of astronomical forces (i.e., the combined gravitational effects of the Earth, Sun, moon, and planets). While changes in the growing season can have a positive effect on some crops (such as melons and sweet potatoes), altered flowering patterns due to more frost-free days can lead to early bud bursts, damaging perennial crops such as nuts and stone fruits. On the other hand, there is not much agreement among projections for future change in the monsoon, except for regarding the timingmost projections suggest that, under continued climate change, the monsoon will start later in the summer and end later in the fall than it currently does (3). Other elements involved in the ignition and growth of fires and the risks they pose to people living in the Southwest include (but are not limited to) forest management practices, development patterns, and human behavior (intentionally or unintentionally starting fires). Although the mountain building that occurred during this event was mostly far to the east, the Southwest was influenced by both fluctuating sea levels and a few significant tectonic changes. Summer temperatures in this region rarely rise above 60 F during the day, while winter temperatures hover around 30 F due to the temperate . The pyrocumulonimbus cloud shown at the arrow was created by heat from the fire. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. (Going forward, to avoid having to say northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico over and over, Ill refer to this area as the monsoon region.). Data source: NOAA, 20212Web update: April2021. Photo by Stefan Klein (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Famous sheriffs like Wyatt Earp and outlaws like Billy the . Figure by Ingrid Zabel for PRI's [emailprotected] project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license). Convective mixing stops because the vertical column of air has turned over so that the cool air is at the bottom and the warm air is at the top. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville. The summer precipitation total for the CONUS was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inch above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. In winter, rising temperatures have increased the number of frost-free days. Reconstruction created using basemap from the. Accessed March 2021. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx. Stages in the formation of a thunderstorm. North America and Europe are part of Laurasia, and South America and Africa are part of Gondwana. Southwest Asia is a region of diverse climates and is generally divided into three main climate types: arid, semiarid, and temperate. Cambrian trilobites from the Bright Angel Shale (Tonto Group), Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. I listened to the Southwest Climate Podcast from CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, to learn more about what affects the monsoon and its rainfall, and how Monsoon 2021 is shaping up, and reached out to the podcast co-hosts, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins, for help with this post. Parts of the Southwest are also experiencing long-term reductions in mountain snowpack (see the Snowpack indicator), which accounts for a large portion of the regions water supply. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. While this will help with the ongoing drought in the southwest, in many regions the precipitation deficit has been building for a long time. Northwestern Mexico receives upwards of 75% of its average annual precipitation from it, and Arizona and New Mexico more than 50%, during JulySeptember. This section covers the climate of the southwestern U.S. through the Phanerozoic, from about 541 million years ago to the recent. Left:Jaw with teeth. (2015) . Reconstruction created using basemap from the PALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). The long-range forecast team breaks down region by region what to expect during the summer. The impact vaporized both water and rock, blocking out sunlight for weeks to years, which led to a collapse of photosynthesis and food webs on land and in the oceans. Resilient Bermudagrass is widely used in the region, but sufficient watering is essential in the desert climate . The geography and climate of the southwestern U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains (in other words, in the Great Plains region in Colorado and New Mexico) are nearly ideal for their formation of thunderstorms and tornados, especially in the summer. Fossils of a cycad (Dioonopsis praespinulosa) from the Paleocene Castle Rock Flora, Colorado. Map by NOAA(public domain) modified for the[emailprotected]project. The American Southwest might evoke images of a hot, dry landscapea land of rock, canyons, and deserts baked by the sun. Climate models project a significant increase in the number of days over 95F per year across the Southeast. Shiprock is part of the San Juan volcanic field and dates to the Oligocene (about 27 million years ago). Paleontological Research Institution Special Publication 38, Ithaca, NY, 200 pp. Credits for individual images are given in figure captions. . Hailstones from a storm in Limon, Colorado, 2010. For example, the difference in annual mean temperature between Pikes Peak (4302 meters or 14,114 feet) and Las Animas (1188 meters or 3898 feet), only 145 kilometers (90 miles) to the southeast, is equivalent to that between Iceland and southern Florida! The elevation of Bear Lake is about 2880 meters (9450 feet). | View Google Privacy Policy. The current drought outlooks expect that the drought in Arizona and New Mexico will improve in the short term, but persist. Map of the Gulf of Mexico region before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. Rainfall, as anyone who has read the ENSO Blog before will know, is an extremely complicated thing to predict! 830 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023. There is a rich marine fossil record from the areas between these islands. Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Water is already scarce in the Southwest, so every drop is a precious resource. Image fromCretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Internationallicense). Higher atmospheric moisture content has also been correlated with an increased incidence of tornados and winter storms. Although much of the Southwest falls within the category of an arid zone, using a single label to describe the Southwest's climate would belie its diversity. Maps and data. Extensive Permian deposits throughout the Southwest are home to a host of fossils, including terrestrial amphibians, reptiles, and synapsids. The average precipitation for the United States is 85.6 centimeters (33.7 inches). 2010. Funnel clouds (developing tornadoes) over El Paso County, Colorado, March 29, 2019. Some areas were more than 2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). Since then carbon dioxide emissions have been on a downward trend. Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain). Taken on September 23, 2017. Summer rains fall almost entirely during brief but intense thunderstorms on the Great Plains, although the occasional hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may push heavier precipitation inland. Although there has so far been little regional change in the Southwests annual precipitation, the areas average precipitation is expected to decrease in the south and remain stable or increase in the north. Wind moves the air, promoting mixing. By early to mid-September, wind patterns have generally reverted back to the westerly pattern, bringing an end to the monsoon. The climate remained warm, despite large southern ice sheets, but it had grown much drier. Ornithopod-type tracks, Powell Fossil Track Block Tracksite, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona and Utah. The warm, arid Southwest region presents extreme challenges to turf grasses in low- and high-desert climates. The final ingredient is wind. This feature focuses on six states that are commonly thought of as southwestern and characterized at least in part by arid landscapes and scarce water supplies: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. He pointed out that ENSO does influence Pacific tropical storms, which can supply moisture to the monsoon. During the Permian, shallow marine waters gave way to lowland coastal areas across portions of the Southwest. Official websites use .gov In southern New Mexico and Arizona, shallow marine deposits, laid down when the ice in Gondwana retreated and sea level rose, alternate with layers of dust blown in when the ice in Gondwana advanced and sea level fell. Summer- The summer in the Southwest region is hot and desert-like. The location of the Southwest and the topographical extremes across this area strongly influence its weather. Go to the full list of resources about the climate of the southwestern U.S. Go to the full list of general resources about climate. The southwestern desert is hot, with winter daytime temperatures in the lower 60s and average summer daytime temperatures between 105 and 115F. Photos by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory (used following NASA's image use policy). The warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential energy it has to move up. Introduction The overall climate of the Southwestits weather patterns over a long period of timetends to be warm and dry. Photo by Daniel Mayer (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image resized). Climate change in the Southwest The global rise in temperatures will affect different locations on earth in unique ways. Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. To provide more detailed information, each state has been divided into climate divisions, which are zones that share similar climate features. Maps showing the progressive closure of the Isthmus of Panama at 20 million years ago (A) and 15 million years ago (B). Photoandreconstructionby National Park Service/NPS (public domain). In New Mexico, for example, the average difference between the daily high and low temperatures ranges from 14 to 19C (25 to 35F). Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:15, Science & information for a climate-smart nation. Modified from illustrations by Wade Greenberg-Brand originally published inThe Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the SouthwesternUS. The warmest temperatures in the Southwest are found in Arizona and New Mexico, while the coolest are found in Utah and Colorado. Las Cruces is located in the Basin and Range region of New Mexico. Reconstruction created using basemap from thePALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks & Elizabeth J. Hermsen for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). Sprawling development of Phoenix, Arizona, a city in the Sonoran Desert, 2009. Ive summarized their conclusions above, and include the quotes here, but I suggest you head over to the full science report if youre in the mood for some specifics. Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license). Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:14. Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. Volcanic activity intensified in the Southwest, and the Basin and Range region began to form, leading to the topography that is seen in those areas today (i.e., low valleys alternating with high mountain ranges). Thus, even a small increase in temperature (which drives evaporation) or a decrease in precipitation in this already arid region can seriously threaten natural systems and society. Winter- The winter in the Southwest region is mild, and hot. As in Arizona, the desert experiences a large range of temperature on a daily basis. Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation(Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, image resized). Winter is the driest season in New Mexico, because precipitation from eastward-traveling Pacific storms is left behind in the western mountains of Arizona and Utah. The warming conditions alone can be impactful, drying out soils quicker during breaks in monsoon rainfall, for example (2). Branches and leaves of an ancient conifer (Walchia dawsonii), Permian Hermit Shale, Arizona. The climate of the eastern plains is fairly uniform, with hot, windy summers and thunderstorms. Spring- The spring in the Southwest region is cool. In the Silurian and Devonian (430 to 359 million years ago), North America moved north across the equator, and the cycle of warming and cooling was repeated yet again. Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). All the weather intel you need for summer 2021 is here -- including what's in store for wildfire season . In New Mexico, climate is characterized by arid, semiarid, or continental conditions, with light precipitation, low humidity, and abundant sunshine. And yet another element of the monsoon system that needs more study to resolve. Facebook Tweet Data from the Northeast Regional Climate Center Applied Climate Information System; 2079-2099 image shows the weighted mean of downscaled CMIP5 models in the LOCA dataset. Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain). I did a quick comparison of the average JulyAugust rainfall in the monsoon region with the Nio-3.4 index, using 70 years of records. The oceans between Gondwana and North America began to close. Data source: National Drought Mitigation Center, 20213Web update: April2021. However, although climate change is predicted to enhance the intensity of severe weather, there is currently no way to calculate what effect climate change will have on the frequency of specific storm eventsfor example, we might see more powerful tornados, but we do not know if we will see more of them. Approximately 3.5 million years ago, glacial ice began to form over the Arctic Ocean and on the northern parts of North America and Eurasia. Photo by Eltiempo10 (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image resized). Source:FEMA National Risk Index. Percent of total annual precipitation occurring during JulySeptember, based on 19792020 using CPC Unified rain-gauge-based data. Photo by Udo S. Title: Monument Valley - Arizona / USA. The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). Drier conditions occurred through the 1920s/1930s, again in the 1950s, and since 1990, when the Southwest has seen some of the most persistent droughts on record (see Figure 3). Despite the monsoon rainfall this year, much of the region is still in a precipitation deficit. Here, oases with large trees, large colonies of burrowing animals, and reptile trackways punctuated the otherwise dry and sandy landscape. The world warmed, and would stay warm through the Mesozoic. Forecasts had all of this widespread flash flooding. All rights reserved. Unfortunately, unpredictable winds spread the flames, which, combined with dry conditions, caused the Calf Canyon and Hermit Peak fires to grow beyond control. These warmer temperatures and increased precipitation have helped bring on longer growing seasons. Here at the ENSO Blog, were always curious about the role of ENSO (El Nio/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Nio/La Nia system). The globe about 485 million years ago, near the Cambrian-Ordovician boundary. Shallow seaways spread over many of the continents, including South America, Africa, Eurasia, and North America. One especially alarming detail about the Calf Canyon fire is that it was originally set in January 2022. What is the climate in the Southwest region in summer? By 2070, one can expect up to 38 more days of freeze-free weather each year. Modified fromFigure 11 in Kirby et al. Snowpack helps keep the ground and soil moist by covering it longer into the spring and summer, which delays the onset of the fire season and influences the prevalence and severity of wildfires. By the end of the Cretaceous, uplift to the west was great enough that the resulting hills shed large amounts of sand and gravel in an easterly direction, pushing the shoreline eastward until sediment (combined with a worldwide drop in sea level) filled the area formerly occupied by the Western Interior Seaway. A major contributing factor to this event was a geological change that occurred far to the south. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. The thunderstorm begins. Large glaciers were found at higher elevations, and temperatures were cool. The Drought Monitor is a more recent and more detailed index based on several other indices (including Palmer), along with additional factors such as snow water content, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, pasture/range conditions, and other impacts. Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. Thus, each Southwestern state experiences both extreme highs and lows. Another player is land-surface feedbackswetter soils provide more moisture to the air through evaporation. Like the Inside Passage, the weather in Southwest Alaska is heavily influenced by ocean currents and maritime conditions. More on that later Now, lets take a sojourn through some North American Monsoon basics (1). Brown indicates areas where experts forecast drought will persist or worsen. Yet this landscape actually supports a vast array of plants and animals, along with millions of people who call the Southwest home. Scattered pockets of drier, Mediterranean temperatures can also be found. Nighttime winter temperatures in the desert can drop slightly below freezing. Agua Caliente solar farm, Maricopa County, Arizona. Bark beetles, which normally die in cold weather, have been able to survive through the winter and reproduce, increasing tree mortality. Photo by Gregory Smith (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Much of the Southwest became an archipelago of warm shallow seaways and uplifted islands, with terrestrial swampy forests and shallow sea floors populated by bivalves, brachiopods, arthropods, corals, and fish. Moving westward, Colorado's foothills and mountainous areas experience an overall cooler climate and higher levels of precipitation. It depends where you are! For temperature, the 2020 monsoon was the hottest on record for the Southwest with an average temperature of 77.1 F, significantly beating the previous record of 76.8 F in 2011 (average is 74.3 F). The number of days with temperatures above 35C (95F) and nights above 24C (75F) has been steadily increasing since 1970, and the warming is projected to continue. Frequent showers and thunderstorms continue well into the summer. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. 2010. Las Cruces, New Mexico, 2006. The formation of precipitation also causes electrical charging of particles in the atmosphere, which in turn produces lightning. Droughts also contribute to increased pest outbreaks and wildfires, both of which damage local economies, and they reduce the amount of water available for generating electricityfor example, at the Hoover Dam.1. We are largely unaware of this precipitation because of the Southern California Chamber of Commerce and a lack of rain gauges. Agriculture accounts for more than half of the Southwests water use, so any major reduction in the availability of water resources will create a serious strain on ecosystems and populations. Cumbres in the San Juan Mountains receives nearly 7.6 meters (300 inches) of snowfall annually, while Manassa, less than 50 kilometers (30 miles) away in the San Luis Valley, receives only about 63 centimeters (25 inches) of snow a year. There is also an important relationship between rainfall and temperature: usually, more rain leads to cooler conditions, and less rain leads to hotter conditions. According to the Kppen classification system, a system of climate classification using latitude band and degree of continentality as its primary forcing factors, Central Asia is a predominantly B-type climate regime. See the Drought indicator for more information about these indices. Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Why talk about climate change? Earth 300 million years ago, during the end of the Carboniferous Period (Pennsylvanian). The Southwest has a very unique culture, climate, and geography. While the state is generally arid, its high western mountains experience more precipitation each year than the desert southwest and the high northeastern plateau do. Because higher temperatures mean greater evaporation and warmer air can hold more water, precipitation will occur in greater amounts at a time, but less frequently. The North American Monsoon is a seasonal change in the atmospheric circulation that occurs as the summer sun heats the continental land mass. A deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) in Portal, Arizona, 2004. In the Southwest, average precipitation ranges from only 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) in Utah to 39.9 centimeters (15.7 inches) in Colorado, which reflects the area's general aridity. Average annual preciptiation for the southwestern U.S. Photograph by Julia Manzerova (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license; image resized). Precipitation forms. Thanks thats a big pool of warm water larger than the gulf of California and warmer than the greater Pacific Ocean. (41-60 degrees.) For southern and western Colorado, the intrusions of moist air are most common from mid July into September associated with wind patterns sometimes called the Southwest Monsoon. In chapter 8.3, How is the water cycle changing and why?, the report states In summary, both paleoclimate evidence and observations indicate an intensification of the NAmerM in a warmer climate (medium confidence). Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. The distance between Santa Fe and Las Vegas, New Mexico, is about 65 kilometers (about 40.5 miles). Later in the Jurassic, the climate became more moderate; dune fields were replaced by rivers and floodplains populated by a rich dinosaur fauna (exemplified by the Morrison Formation) and large trees along rivers, streams, and grasslands. For example, high winter temperatures between 2000 and 2003 correlated to bark beetle outbreaks that devastated pinyon pine throughout the Southwest, leading to nearly 90% mortality at some sites in Colorado and Arizona. Global temperatures fell further in the late Miocene thanks to the formation of the Himalayas. Onion Creek salt diapir, a salt dome exposed at the surface at Fisher Towers, Utah. Convective mixing forces the moisture in warm air to condense as it comes into contact with cool air, forming vapor (clouds) and precipitation (for example, rain or hail).